CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-09T01:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-09T01:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33264/-1
CME Note: Large, bright lightbulb CME to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source appears to be a long duration M1.0 flare from AR13806 (~S05W89). Moving/opening field lines are visible in SDO/AIA 171 and 193 starting around 2024-09-09T00:24Z along the western limb with post-eruptive arcades visible starting around 2024-09-09T02:24Z. The eruption is also visible in GOES SUVI before an eclipse occurs and in STEREO A EUVI 304 and 195 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-11T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2024 Sep 09 1538 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched at 9 Sep 03:36 UTC. It is associated with NOAA active region 3806 which is located at the west solar limb. Due to its location, it is expected to only deliver a glancing blow to the Earth's environment at the second half of 11 Sep. A halo CME also seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and detected by CACTus as launched at 9 Sep 07:36 UTC is a back-sided event and not expected to affect the Earth's environment. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium #Lead Time: 47.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-09-09T15:40Z
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